In short: On Melbourne Cup Day, the RBA raised the cash rate again, from 4.60% to 4.85% (RBA). It’s the fifth rise this year. For a typical $600,000 loan, that’s about $100 more a month. Prices are falling, but trying to pick the bottom is a gamble. What really matters is whether you can comfortably afford your repayments.
Most Australians spent Melbourne Cup Day picking a horse. The Reserve Bank had its own pick: another rate rise.
At 2:30pm, half an hour before the big race, it raised interest rates for the fifth time this year, taking the cash rate to 4.85% (RBA cash rate history). If the RBA were a racehorse, it would be the stayer of the year: five starts, five wins, and still not looking tired. And unlike the Cup, there was no surprise winner. Most economists had backed it as the favourite, which might be the only winning bet nobody was celebrating.
Here’s how the year has played out:
| Rise | Decision announced | New cash rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 February 2026 | 3.85% |
| 2 | 17 March 2026 | 4.10% |
| 3 | 5 May 2026 | 4.35% |
| 4 | 29 September 2026 | 4.60% |
| 5 | 3 November 2026 | 4.85% |
Source: RBA cash rate target history (rises 1–4) and RBA Monetary Policy Decision, 3 November 2026 (rise 5).
That’s 1.25 percentage points in total this year, from 3.60% to 4.85%.
So the question I keep hearing is simple: should I wait, or should I buy?
Why did rates go up again?
Because the price of everyday things is still rising too fast.
Think of your weekly grocery shop. If it costs $250 today and prices rise about 4% a year, the same trolley costs about $260 next year. That’s close to what’s happening now: prices rose 4.3% in the year to September, with electricity, new homes and fuel among the biggest drivers (ABS). The RBA’s target is 2–3% a year (RBA), and it now doesn’t expect inflation to get back there until late 2027 (RBA).
Raising interest rates is how the RBA slows things down:
- Loans cost more each month.
- People have less spare money, so they spend less.
- With less spending, businesses can’t keep raising prices so easily.
It’s a bit like a jockey pulling on the reins when a horse goes out too fast. The aim isn’t to stop the horse. It’s to make sure it doesn’t burn out before the finish line.
This time, though, the board was split. Six members voted to raise rates and three wanted to hold (RBA). That tells us even the RBA is wondering whether it has pulled the reins hard enough already.
What will it cost me?
A rough guide, assuming a variable rate of around 6.75% over 30 years and that your lender passes on the full rise (The Property Desk’s own calculation, using the standard loan repayment formula):
| Loan size | Extra per month (this rise) | Extra per month (since January) |
|---|---|---|
| $600,000 | about $100 | about $485 |
| $800,000 | about $130 | about $645 |
Your numbers will differ, but five rises in one year add up.
Wait or buy? Two sides
The case for waiting: Sydney home values are 10.1% below their February peak, after falling another 1.6% in October (Cotality Home Value Index). And the RBA hasn’t ruled out more rises. It says it “will continue to do what it considers necessary” to bring inflation down (RBA). Why rush?
The case for buying: nobody rings a bell at the bottom. By the time everyone agrees prices have stopped falling, the competition is back. Right now, buyers have something rare: time and bargaining power. And the RBA itself expects the economy to slow and inflation to ease over the next couple of years (RBA). Once inflation is under control, rates have room to come down, though no one can say exactly when.
So who’s right? Neither, on their own. It depends on your budget, not the market.
What I’m seeing on the ground
One thing I’m discussing more with buyers right now is off the plan. In a slower market, many developers and builders are offering incentives such as discounts and rebates. And because off-the-plan homes usually settle later, often 12 months or more away, you’re not taking on the full loan today. If rates have eased by the time you settle, you could be borrowing at a lower rate when it actually counts. But that’s a possibility, not a promise.
But I’ll be upfront, because I work in property sales, including off-the-plan projects: it isn’t right for everyone.
- Your loan is approved at settlement, not today. If rates are higher or your circumstances change, the bank may lend you less.
- Values can move. If prices fall further, the bank’s valuation could come in below your purchase price, and you’d need to cover the gap.
- Rate cuts aren’t guaranteed. Plan as if rates could still be higher when you settle.
- You’re relying on the developer. Check their track record and understand the sunset clause in your contract. NSW Fair Trading explains your rights when buying off the plan (NSW Fair Trading).
If it suits your situation, a discount today plus a later settlement can be a sensible option in a market like this. Just get the contract checked by a conveyancer, and talk to your broker about what you could borrow at settlement, not just today.
What it means for you
- Thinking of buying? Work out a repayment you could still manage if rates went up again, and stay within it. The government’s free Moneysmart mortgage calculator can help.
- Have a pre-approval? Get it re-checked. Higher rates can reduce how much you can borrow.
- Already own? Focus on your cash flow, not your home’s value this month. Even a small buffer helps.
- Feeling the squeeze? Talk to your lender early, before you miss a payment. The National Debt Helpline (1800 007 007) is free and government-funded.
The bottom line
Five rate rises in a year is tough. But rates go up, and rates come down. The buyers who do best aren’t the ones who perfectly time the market. They’re the ones who buy something they can comfortably hold.
Like the Melbourne Cup, property is a long race, not the first 400 metres.
“This too shall pass.” — Persian proverb
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General information only. This isn’t financial advice and doesn’t consider your personal circumstances. Repayment figures are approximate examples. Speak to your lender or a mortgage broker about your own situation. I work in property sales with Vision Property; the views here are my own.
Sources
- Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Decision, 3 November 2026
- Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash rate target history
- Reserve Bank of Australia – Inflation target
- Australian Bureau of Statistics – CPI rose 4.3% in the year to September 2026
- NSW Fair Trading – Buying property off the plan
- Moneysmart (ASIC) – Mortgage calculator
- National Debt Helpline
- Cotality Home Value Index, November 2026 release (industry data; no official monthly price index exists)
- Repayment figures: The Property Desk’s own calculation (30-year loan, about 6.75% variable rate, full rise passed on)
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